Iraqi Poll

January 26, 2005

Power Line has poll results from the Iraqi Ministry of Planning that suggest things in Iraq may be better than they are portrayed on the news (link via Instapundit):

72.4 % of all of those polled said they would participate in the elections.

75% of Iraqis say security where they live is either "good" or
"average." Not exactly the impression you would get from the American

This sounds good, but I have to wonder about the validity of the poll that is being used. How was the poll conducted? Are people who feel worse about their security less likely to respond to a poll? I would expect so. These people would, of course, also be less likely to vote and we don’t really have an indication that the numbers were weighted in order to make up for this.
I am optimistic about the elections and hope and pray that they are as successful as some expect, but I think we need to be cautious not to accept good news at face value simply because we want to believe it.


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